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Ophelia, Bahamas Disturbance Destined To Fizzle
UPDATED 11 AM EDT, September 25, 2011
UPDATED By WeatherBug Meteorologist, Fred Allen | A once formidable Tropical Storm Ophelia is hanging onto its tropical characteristics by a thread, while a tropical disturbance near the Bahamas is unraveling. It will likely not become the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season`s next tropical depression, while Ophelia could become post-tropical later today.
As of 11 a.m. EDT, disorganized Tropical Storm Ophelia is centered at 18.3N and 60.4W, or about 175 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. This places the storm about 1,350 miles to the east-southeast of Miami. Its top sustained winds have decreased to 40 mph, and its cruising to the west at 9 mph. Ophelia`s minimum central pressure has risen to 1008 mb, or 29.77 inches of mercury.
Ophelia`s thunderstorm activity is being severely hampered by hostile upper-level winds, as an upper-level low pressure system continues to sit and swirl just to the west of the cyclone. It is expected that the upper-level low will not budge over the next few days, meaning Ophelia will likely become post-tropical later today.
If Ophelia were able to survive the next couple of days, it could begin to strengthen while drifting northwest and northward between the Bahamas and Bermuda by next weekend. All interests along the Southeast U.S. Coast and Bermuda will need to monitor the future progress of Ophelia.
Meanwhile, a once organized tropical disturbance at the tail end of a cold front sitting in the vicinity of the Bahamas is now being torn apart by an unfavorable upper-level environment. If not almost impossible already for the season`s 18th depression to form in the western Atlantic, an increase in wind shear will develop as it interacts even more with the front.
The lasting impact with the decaying tropical wave will be more heavy rainfall along the Outer Banks of North Carolina as it merges with a stationary front and races up the East Coast this weekend. It will squeeze out 1 to 2 inches of rain in areas that were hard-hit by Hurricane Irene in late-August and Tropical Storm Lee`s remnants in early September. Here, there has been no shortage of rainfall, with more than 2 feet falling since late-August.
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